Spatial planning for China’s renewabl eenergy expansion toward 2030

China is rapidly advancing renewable energy deployment to decarbonize the power system and meet its ambitiousclimate targets. However, existing energy models have limitations in simulating resource availability, generationvariability, and grid integration in a consistent framework with high temporal and spatial resolution, making itdifficult for them to effectively guide policy formulation. In this paper, we develop a model that can co-optimizecapacity expansion and operation for China’s power system at the hourly level in a full year and a grid celllevel of 0.1° x 0.1° for wind and solar power deployment, which is unprecedented in terms of temporal andspatial resolution, Applying this modeling tool to inform renewable deployment during the 15th Five-Year Plan(2026-2030), we find that China will have cumulatively 766 GW of wind power and 1880 GW of solar powerinstallations to generate 4.9 PWh/yr by 2030 in the base case, close to the coal power output (5.3 PWh/yr).We further find that onshore wind installations are concentrated in the “Three North” regions, offshore windinstallations are concentrated along the eoastcoasts of Fujian, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, and large-scale solarinstallations are scattered in northern, eastern, and southern China. An additional 350 GW of inter-provincialultra-high voltage transmission and 1200 GWh of energy storage will be installed during the 15th Five-Year Planto balance, the increased renewable installations, The simulated marginal cost of electricity production reveals anincreased variability, presenting challenges for power market regulations, It is recommended to prioritize spatialblanning for renewable energy installations and related industries, and emphasize the critical role of cost-effectivestorage technologies and ultra-high voltage inter-provincial transmissions.

Applied Energy (398)